The excerpts below are examples of my research ability, perspective and writing style. This material is from a book I am currently writing.
That men do not learn from history is the most important lesson that history has to teach. – Aldous Huxley
My effort in writing this book is to try to provide a longer-term historical, political and economic framework to explain to the American people what is happening today with our country…… In the big picture, for us to understand what could be happening today in America has similarities to what has happened before throughout history. Basically, as we know, civilizations, dynasties, empires, come and go. I am not making predictions. I am making comparisons to illustrate some points I want to make. We can learn from history. To put a frame on this picture, I will revisit a school of economic thinking that intrigued civilizations going back to the ancient Israelites and the Mayan Empire. This thinking is categorized as Long Wave Economic Theory.
This economic thinking gained some popularity during the 1930’s to try to answer questions about the cause of the Great Depression. One of the most popular Long Wave disciplines was the work of a Russian economist Nickolai Kondratief – father of the Kondratief Wave. There were other long cycles being discussed; Kuznets, Juglar and Kitchin cycles to name a few. It failed to gain popularity because, scientifically, it was found not to be predictive.
In spite of the academic and scientific critique, the thoughts and gist of the long wave thinking are pretty simple, truthful ideas and are certainly justified upon even casual observation. Great Britain was once the most powerful nation on earth. Their military and naval forces were spread all over the globe. The empire was in tremendous debt. They were saddled with poor leadership. These are all “tendencies”, as the Mayans would say, of a long wave top – which develop over a number of years. And also the Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire. Same story, military spread all across the then known world, poor leadership, a big decline in morality and they were overrun with the cost to maintain the empire. ……
The marvel of all history is the patience with which men and women submit to burdens unnecessarily laid upon them by their government. – George Washington
In my book I touch on the Third Reich, India, and Chinese dynasties where these empires actually were king of the hill in their time. . In the book, it sounds a lot like what we are facing today.
To use this type of grand thinking and apply it to the concerns about our lives today and our future, we have to examine what the Myans called “tendencies” at the tops and bottoms of long waves…………
The tendencies at tops and bottoms of a long wave encompass a nation’s wealth, culture, demographics, politics, and social conditions, and yes, economic and financial conditions……..
A simple example of the Mayan approach to this long wave thought process is the shirt-sleeve-to-shirt-sleeve analogy of a long cycle. In this case, the first generation, presumably at a cycle bottom, the “tendencies” are that life can be “tough”, that one has to roll up their shirt sleeves, dig in their heels and start to build their lives through hard work and savings. It starts. The future generations have a little easier time at life but they continue to grow and maintain social values. When standards of living continue to rise and change occurs, at some point, a future generation, when presumably at the top of the “tendencies” cycle, gets “silly”, is spoiled, lazy, everything comes easy, values become questionable, money is spent rather than saved and everything starts to fall apart. Confusion reigns supreme for the citizens to understand what is happening. How did we lose direction, where is the moral compass? Bad leadership prevails.
This wave peak, as it has been played out so many times in history, sets the stage for a painful decline usually associated with a severe and long recession or an economic depression or a long period of economic stagnation. And, with the passage of time, the lessons that are learned from hard economic times sets the stage for recovery and a renewal of life’s values and work ethics. Historically, it has been a painful process. Then, once more, the cycle starts by a generation rolling up their shirtsleeves, working hard, saving money and building a better life for their children and grand and great grand children. At that time, the recovery begins………..
Many of the tendencies in this type of analysis have been repeated so many times throughout history and are comparable to what our nation is experiencing today. This could be serious.
The cause of America is in a great measure the cause of all mankind. – Thomas Paine, circa 1792